基于雷达回波最大重叠率的一种临近降水预报方法          下载免费PDF全文

李建通  高守亭  郭林 《大气科学》2011,35(3):519-530

基于天气雷达的临近降水预报是雷达短时预报业务系统的重要组成部分,本文在回顾雷达临近降水预报技术发展的基础上,充分考虑新一代天气雷达高时间、空间分辨率的优点,提出两个相邻时刻雷达回波具有最大重叠率的移向、移速是与降水系统整体的移向、移速密切相关的论点,再用此移向、移速对当前雷达回波进行平移,最后采用九点平均的回波生消模型...  相似文献   

珠江三角洲城市群对夏季降雨影响的初步研究   总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1  

任慧军  徐海明 《气象科学》2011,31(4):391-397

利用TRMM 2A25卫星降水数据和CMORPH同化数据对珠三角洲地区的降水分布特征进行了探讨,观测表明：珠三角城市群区域总体处于降水的低值中心,且对流降雨的低值中心尤为明显;同时近10 a珠三角核心城市区域降雨有减少的趋势,这种降水减少的趋势可能与珠三角城市化效应有关。本文进一步利用WRF模式模拟分析了珠三角城市群发展对夏季降雨的影响,结果表明珠三角城市化使得该区域降雨减少,其原因为城市化使得地表的蒸发减弱及其大气中的水分供应减少,同时也抬升了珠三角区域边界层高度相应增强了低层大气水汽垂直混合。  相似文献   

A simple model accounting for the uptake,transport, and deposition of wind‐eroded mineral particles in the hyperarid coastal Atacama Desert of northern Chile     

Stephane C. Alfaro  Valentina Flores‐Aqueveque  Gilles Foret  Sandrine Caquineau  Gabriel Vargas  Jose A. Rutllant 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2011,36(7):923-932

As previously observed in marine sediments collected downwind of African or South American continental sources, recent studies of sediment cores collected at the bottom of Mejillones Bay in north Chile (23°S) show a laminated structure in which the amount of particles of aeolian origin and their size create significant differences between the layers. This suggests inter‐annual to inter‐decadal variations in the strength of the local southerly winds responsible for (1) the erosion of the adjacent hyperarid surface of the Mejillones Pampa, and (2) the subsequent transport of the eroded particles towards the bay. A simple model accounting for the vertical uptake, transport, and deposition of the particles initially set into motion by wind at the surface of the pampa is proposed. This model, which could be adapted to other locations, assumes that the initial rate of (vertical) uptake is proportional to the (horizontal) saltation flux quantified by means of White's equation, that particles are lifted to a height (H), increasing with the magnitude of turbulence, and that sedimentation progressively removes the coarsest particles from the air column as it moves towards the bay. In this model, the proportionality constant (A) linking the vertical flux of particles with the horizontal flux, and the injection height (H) control the magnitude and size distribution of the deposition flux in the bay. Their values are determined using the wind speed measured over the pampa and the size distribution of particles collected in sediment traps deployed in the bay as constraints. After calibration, the model is used to assess the sensitivity of the deposition flux to the wind intensity variations. The possibility of performing such quantitative studies is necessary for interpreting precisely the variability of the aeolian material in the sediment cores collected at the bottom of Mejillones Bay. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Application of an S‐shaped curve model to the temporal development of tafoni of salt‐weathering origin     

Tsuguo Sunamura  Hisashi Aoki 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2011,36(12):1624-1631

To describe temporal change in tafone development, an S‐shaped curve equation is proposed: Z = Z_c [1 ? (n + 1) exp (? β t ) + n exp (? (1 + 1/n) β t )] , where Z is observed tafone depth, Z_c is ultimate tafone depth, t is time, and n and β are constants. The applicability of this model is examined using tafone data selected from seven sites, which are categorized into three different salt‐weathering environments: a spray/splash‐dominant (occasionally wave‐affected) supra‐tidal zone, aerosol‐affected coastal regions, and inland desert areas. The results indicate that the equation can well describe tafone development in each of these environments. An investigation based on the values of n and β, determined through a best fit of the equation to the data, suggests that n characterizes site‐specific environmental conditions and β reflects the magnitude of factors controlling the recession mechanism of tafone surfaces. It is found that (1) the maximum rate of tafone growth dramatically decreases from supra‐tidal, through coastal, to desert environments, and (2) the growing mode of tafoni is different depending on the environmental settings. The erosional force to facilitate the development of tafoni at supra‐tidal sites is estimated to be about 400 times greater than that in the general coastal area. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

导航电子地图生产过程中的质量控制方法     

李瑞月  肖成才  朱婧  马威  李宏利 《测绘软科学研究》2011,(5):42-45,70

从分析导航电子地图数据特点和质量特性入手,给出导航电子地图生产过程中从检测标准、质控设置、检验手段到质量改进的质量控制过程。  相似文献   

高重复率SLR数据预处理方法的实现     

张忠萍  张海峰  高皓  瞿锋 《测绘科学》2011,36(3):172-173,24

千次重复频率SLR技术主要优势是观测数据量犬,从而得到高精度测量结果,相比低重复频率(小于10Hz)测距资料,kHz数据量有近百倍的增加,因而快速、有效对每次每圈卫星kHz资料处理是高重复率激光测距重要内容,以满足ILRS对测距数据及时处理和发送的要求.通过采用均匀选取数据的点图方式,加速数据点屏幕显示;采用Visua...  相似文献   

卡尔曼滤波算法的灰色理论模型在变形监测中的应用   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

姜刚  杨志强  张贵钢 《测绘科学》2011,36(4):19-21

本文针对灰色理论模型在建模过程中受到随机扰动影响这一问题,提出了利用卡尔曼滤波处理建模数据的方法.经过实例检验,证明基于滤波算法的灰色理论模型在一定程度上可以提高预测值的精度,更好地反映了观测目标的变形趋势,在变形监测中具有一定的优势.  相似文献   

积水沉陷区水体的表观光学特性参数测量与分析     

朱继文  孟祥来  张贺 《地理空间信息》2011,9(3):6-8

通过实际测量试验区的积水沉陷区水深值,了解水体光学特性随水深不同而引起的衰减特征变化,建立水深与光谱特性响应间的关系表达式,确定获取水深信息的最佳波谱范围;揭示了叶绿素、悬浮物质、CDOM等水体组分与水体光谱特征变化的关系,探讨因水体各主要组分变化而引起的水体光谱吸收光谱、散射光谱的变化规律.  相似文献   

1955—2007年拉萨市雨季夜雨率变化特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

余忠水 《气象》2011,37(12):1584-1588

利用1955—2007年拉萨市逐日降水和气温地面观测资料,分析了拉萨市雨季（5—9月）夜雨率变化特征。结果表明：拉萨市整个雨季日夜雨率变化是比较稳定的,近50多年来基本没有发生明显的年代际变化。夜雨率与日降水量有显著关联,当日降水量在25 mm以下时,夜雨率随降水量增加而增大,当日降水量〈1 mm时夜雨率最小为75.2%,当日降水量为25 mm时,夜雨率达到最大值93.4%;夜雨率与日温差存在显著的负相关;拉萨多夜雨与地形有关,高夜雨率既有有利的一面,也会带来一些负面影响。因此,深入探讨夜雨率是制定有效防御气象灾害对策的重要依据。  相似文献   

Analysis of the Trends of Thunderstorms in 1951–2007 in Jiangsu Province   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

魏建苏  刘梅  张备  俞剑蔚 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2011,17(1):58-63

Based on the 1951–2007 thunderstorms in Jiangsu, a study is conducted for their climate trends, periodicity, spatiotemporal patterns, and the distributions of the first and last days of the thunderstorms at different guarantee rates (GRs) using climate tendency rate, wavelet analysis, and GR for diagnosis. Results suggest that the inter-annual number of thunderstorm days (TSDs) exhibits a decreasing trend in this province. The trend is displayed mainly in the decreasing TSD number in summer and autumn except in spring, when the variation is not significant in the study period. In this province, the TSD number declines by ~2 days per 10 years. On an inter-annual basis, the pronounced positive departures of the number take place chiefly in the early 1960s, the late 1960s to the early-mid-1970s, the late 1980s, and the late 1990s compared with the negative anomalies dominant in the late 1970s to the mid-1980s, the mid-to-late-1990s, and the late 1990s to 2007. There are vast differences in the initial and ending days at diverse GRs in different areas of the province. At 50% GR, the earliest (last) days occur from mid-March to early April (early to late September) while at 80% GR, the initial (last) days are from late March to early May (early to late October). For the distribution of periods, the periods >8–10 years are relatively stable for the entire province. Based on 1951–2007 period analysis, the region north (south) of the Huaihe River experiences TSDs less (more) than normal days in recent years.  相似文献